Carolina Ag Advisors Weekly Wrap Up 5/19/23

General Market/News

                On Wednesday Russia agreed to extend the Ukraine grain export for 60 more days. There was also a meeting between Ukraine and China this week. Ukraine made it clear that they will not accept any peace proposals that results in loss of territories.

                Debt ceiling talks and negotiations continued in Washington this week but as of midday Friday the talks have paused. Currently there are no plans when discussions may resume. House speaker Kevin McCarthy is staying positive that a deal will get done. However, Biden is now on a trip to Asia and Australia and in a week, Congress has a scheduled recess.

                Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made comments this week that the banking sector stress may impact how the Fed moves forward with interest rates.

                This week there were two announcements for candidacy, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott says he is running for president and NC Lt Gov Mark Robinson announced he is running for governor.

Commodities this week

It seems the bullish revolver of the market has run out of bullets. Planting so far has gone great across the country with only a few places lagging behind averages.  There is also talk that USDA estimates for corn exports will need to be lowered. China still has about 2 million metric tons bought that hasn’t shipped yet. With the recent cancellations, many are worried more are to come. Overall, the market is assuming the weather remains good throughout the growing season and the projected big crop is coming. The market will continue to make this assumption until proven otherwise. That being said, weather is still the biggest question. When will El Nino come into effect? How will the timing of the weather pattern shift affect the now growing crop?

This past Monday’s crop progress report showed: US corn planting at 65% (average 59%) US soybeans planting at 49% (average 36%) NC corn planting 95% (average 92%) NC soybean planting at 32% (average 31%). US Cotton planting at 35% (average 36%) NC Cotton Planting 26% (average 37%)

All prices were gathered the afternoon of Friday, May 19, 2023, and compared to last Friday’s close.

  • Oil, up $1.19 a barrel to $71.31.
  • July 2023 Corn, down 38 cents to $5.54.
  • Dec 2023 Corn, down 9 cents $4.99.
  • July 2023 Beans, down 83 cents to $13.07.
  • Nov 2023 Soybeans, down 48 cents to $11.75.
  • July 2023 Wheat, down 30 cents to $6.05.
  • July 2023 Cotton, up 632 points to 86.73.
  • Dec 2023 Cotton, up 382 points to 83.89.

Local Basis Talk

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