Weekly Wrap Up March 3, 2023

Rick’s Reflections:

The calendar says spring is here.  It sure feels like it as well.  The longer days, warmer days, and flowers in bloom bring a better feeling to me.  I have an azalea in bloom, the masters must be coming soon.   

Enjoy the sunshine and beautiful weather.  It is a nice time of year and a promise of better times ahead.

General Market/News
After short 3-hour deliberation, a jury found Alex Murdaugh guilty of all counts against him in the murder of his wife and son. He has been sentenced to life in prison. The Murdaugh family held the district attorney’s office for around 86 years.

Crime and violence in NC public schools was up 24% when comparing last school year (2021-2022) to the 18-19 school year. The major increase was seen in possession of drugs or weapons.

It seems the winter offensive push by Russia is getting close to its first victory. The city of Bakhmut is nearly surrounded by Russian troops. The Ukrainian export deal currently runs through March 19th. As we approach that day the deal will need
to be extended in order to continue without major complications. It is of note that China has announced their 12-step peace plan for Russia and Ukraine.

Commodities this week:
In South America, it seems big crops are getting bigger and small crops are getting smaller. Market estimators are now increasing their production estimates for both Brazilian corn and beans. Meanwhile those same folks are continuing to lower the Argentine production all the time. The story of slow harvest progress in
Brazil continues to push back planting of the Safrinha (second harvest) corn crop. In the US exports for both corn and beans continue to fall behind and disappoint. Many are expecting export numbers to come down and stocks to come up in next week’s WASDE report. This report will be published next Wednesday March 8th at noon.
Last week we broke the range that corn had been trading in and began to search for new support as prices fell. It seems for now with buying support from users we have established a new nearby low around 6.20 for nearby (May) corn and 5.65 for new crop corn. Beans seem to be holding stronger with support from the bean meal market with the issues of the Argentine crop. Keep in mind that Argentina exports mainly processed soybeans (meal and oil) rather than whole beans.

All prices were gathered the afternoon of Friday, March 3, 2023, and compared to open price on
Monday morning.
 Oil, up $3 a barrel to $79.50.
 May 2023 Corn, down 11 cents to $6.39.
 Dec 2023 Corn, down 5 cents $5.71.
 May 2023 Beans, down 1 cent to $15.18.
 Nov 2023 Soybeans, down 1 cent to $13.73.
 July 2023 Wheat, down 14 cents to $7.16.
 May 2023 Cotton, down .65 cents to 84.25.
 Dec 2023 Cotton, up .3 cents to 84.33.

Local Basis Talk
Nearby corn basis is weakening with rail movement running very efficiently.

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