Carolina Ag Advisors Weekly Wrap-Up – April 28, 2023

General Market/News

              The NC House passed a bill this week that would ban foreign adversaries such as China from buying farmland within 25 miles of a military base. This bill passed unanimously.

              GDP grew at 1.1% in Q1. This was well below Q4 growth that was at 2.6% and under expectations that were averaged about 2%.

              In March, the yuan surpassed the dollar in China’s out of country transactions. This is the first time that the yuan has had more volume in a month’s time. The yuan was used in 48.4% while the dollar’s share was 46.7% or the cross-border transactions.

              Today the EPA issued an emergency fuel waiver to allow E15 gasoline to be sold through the higher demand summer driving season.

Commodities this week

Another week of weakness for the grains. Planting progress in the US is still in its infancy but off to a very fast and well above average start. China canceled another shipment of corn this week. We are seeing these cancellations because many are now calling the Brazilian crop “made.” Albeit maybe a little premature, things do look good for the Safrinha corn crop that will come off this summer. So, China is cancelling the higher price US corn and looking to buy cheaper Brazilian corn in July. Weather in the US seems to be improving in those areas that need it. The Southwestern Plains saw their best rains since last summer and more on the way. This needed rain may be a little too late on some the winter wheats but very need for spring plantings. As for now, it seems we need a weather issue to start a bull story. The other headline to watch is the upcoming May 18 deadline for the next extension of the Ukraine export deal.

This past Monday’s crop progress report showed: US corn planting at 14% (average 11%) US soybeans planting at 9% (average 4%) NC corn planting 52% (average 51%) NC soybean planting at 4% (average 4%). US Cotton planting at 12% (average 11%) NC Cotton Planting 1% (average 1%)

All prices were gathered the afternoon of Friday, April 28, 2023, and compared to open price on Monday morning. Market closed for Good Friday.

  • Oil, down $1.30 a barrel to $76.67.
  • July 2023 Corn, down 30 cents to $5.85.
  • Dec 2023 Corn, down 21 cents $5.27.
  • July 2023 Beans, down 31 cents to $14.19.
  • Nov 2023 Soybeans, down 23 cents to $12.63.
  • July 2023 Wheat, down 46 cents to $6.33.
  • May 2023 Cotton, down 135 points to 79.03.
  • Dec 2023 Cotton, up 19 points to 81.10.

Local Basis Talk

If they haven’t been already, any old soybean or corn basis contracts rolled today as the May futures contract enters first notice day.

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