Carolina Ag Advisors Weekly Wrap-up 4/21/23

General Market/News

              As China looks for ways to break their dependence on US soybeans, soymeal inclusion in feed rations was decreased by 1.6%. Every 0.5% the inclusion is lowered equals about 3 million metric tons less demand for soybeans in China (110 million bushels).

              China’s Defense Minister returned home from Russia with a new deal in hand. Russia and China have agreed to continue and expand their military and overall support and cooperation.

              As the deadline of May 18th draws closer there still isn’t a compromised made with Russia to ensure the continued extension of the Ukraine export deal. Russia stated last week that they will not extend again unless some of the sanctions on their economy are loosed. Ships were stopped early in the week but have now started to move slowly again out of the ports.

              Another stamp hike? We all know interest rates are creeping up and inflation has been out of control. However, the postal service is looking to raise the cost of stamps now to 66 cents. If this goes into effect stamps will have risen 32% since 2019.

              According to the United Nations food agency, food prices have fallen for their 12th consecutive month. The index is now down 20.5% from the record high last year that occurred due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

La Nina is leaving, and El Nino is coming. The key question has been when will the transition take place? The most aggressive models are now showing El Nino beginning in May. It seems that the earlier the El Nino begins the better it will be for midwestern rain throughout the growing season which will result in better production.

Commodities this week

The huge Brazilian crop battered the grain markets this week due so much farmer selling and supply entering the market. US Corn and soybean exports were disappointing last week to add to the weakness seen in the corn board. Midwest planting has seen some headwinds this week with a cold snap and rainy weather in the forecast over the next week in some areas. Some are also pointing out that dryness could be an issue in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa. At this point it is too early for this to have any major impacts on new crop. Lastly, there is still the major question of when will El Nino set in?

This past Monday’s crop progress report showed: US corn planting at 8% (average 5%) US soybeans planting at 4% (average 1%) NC corn planting 28% (average 32%) NC soybean planting at 0%

All prices were gathered the afternoon of Friday, April 21, 2023, and compared to open price on Monday morning. Market closed for Good Friday.

  • Oil, down $4.62 a barrel to $77.80.
  • May 2023 Corn, down 3 cents to $6.63.
  • Dec 2023 Corn, down 11 cents $5.48.
  • July 2023 Beans, down 25 cents to $14.49.
  • Nov 2023 Soybeans, down 15 cents to $12.85.
  • July 2023 Wheat, up 2 cents to $6.97.
  • May 2023 Cotton, down 448 points to 78.41.
  • Dec 2023 Cotton, down 237 points to 80.38.

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